How awesome is the Mets’ poison pen?
Let’s find out. Time for a little numbers game, OK?
First, a satellite view of our hottest hot-button issue not born in British Columbia. I present to you (drum roll, rimshot) — aggregate bullpen metrics for your 2012 NY Mets (sitcom laugh track):
GP W L SV SV% IP IP/G R ER HR BB K K/9 WHIP BAA .OPS ERA
Mets 109 12 21 27 61.0 319.1 2.93 198 177 33 150 288 8.12 1.47 .299 .739 4.99
NL Avg 112 16 17 30 67.0 334 2.98 159 144 33 139 313 8.44 1.35 .248 .711 3.87
MLB Avg 111 16 15 29 69.0 339 3.05 152 139 34 132 312 8.31 1.30 .242 .698 3.70
NL RANK 13 14 8 12 6 14 13 9 11 12 11 16 11 12 16
MLB Rank 26 28 30 25 11 28 27 21 23 22 19 28 25 26 30
(complete thru 08/12/2012; SOURCE: mlb.com, espn.com)
The good news is that, by at least a few measures, they’re not the absolute WORST in the majors.
The bad news? How much time you got?
Unfortunately, by almost every metric that translates to effectiveness, they’re bottom-dwellers. Sure, this comes as no surprise to us, but some of the numbers are stupefying.
ERA? NL and MLB-worst 4.99 — bad enough to make us long for the 2011 pyromaniacs. In fact, in just about every way ERA can be parsed (ERC%, Component ERA Ratio; DIP%, Defense-independent ERA Ratio), the 2012 Mets pen is dead last in the majors, and they can’t even pin it on the often-suspect defense.
Whether you’re looking at an NL-worst WHIP or the bottom-5 in opponents’ OPS, bullpen losses, blown saves, strikeouts, strikeouts/9, walks/9 and HR/9, Alderson’s Arsonists are finalists for a 50th Anniversary Booby Prize.
And some StatPerv out there can probably also prove that Mets relievers rank near the bottom in swing-and-miss pitches, which I’m willing to bet correlates strongly with high enemy OPS.
For most of 2012, even on days when the offense didn’t pull its weight, Mets relief pitchers can be found standing at the scene of the crime. Predictably, the everyday players have finally cracked again this year, under the suffocating weight of trying to build leads big enough to be “pen proof” (tip o’ the hat, Franny).
Some reflexively blame this overall pattern of failure on overuse. But, ten NL teams have thrown more total innings than the 2012 Mets. I also computed their bullpen innings/game, but they’re actually way down from last year (starters are going about 2/3 inning deeper), so the problem isn’t overuse, per se.
Instead, we should look to the way the Mets have used relievers for years now, under three different managers. If you’re not sure what I mean, just ask Tim Byrdak or Pedro Feliciano (or any other lefty specialist the Mets have run into the ground this decade). And Mets bullpen lefties don’t have the misuse/overuse market cornered (see: Heilman, A; Parnell, R.).
No easy answers here. Going forward, the infield and starting rotation look to be major league average or better. But, the outfield, catching corps and bullpen continue to be a tattered ruin. And, for as long as we can remember now, the Mets are failing massively and institutionally in every imaginable combination of amateur & pro scouting (finding native ability and potential) / minor league development / roster construction & management / coaching / in-game use patterns / dumb luck.
Take your pick. Pick one from Column A and two from Column B.
As for last night’s near-fiasco, the consensus goat here (by a landslide) was the manager. This just in: Planet Earth agrees. Postgame, Terry Collins offered some lame expression of surprise that two of his relievers couldn’t throw strikes, before Jon Rauch finally, mercifully, excruciatingly — barely — put the game to bed.
But, for the first time in a WEEK, TC had a chance to avoid the crapshoot altogether. His young lefthander, Jon Niese, looked strong and ready to finish what he started at 105 pitches (he’s already gone 120 this year), after 8 relatively painless innings. And Terry spit the bit, setting the nightly nightmare merry-go-round in motion again.
One thing for sure, Sandy Alderson and his MBA braintrust have now assembled two bullpens, and BOTH have been atrocious. Their second effort may end up taking the Mets’ grand prize for historic badness. The third time around had better be the charm, or Alderson’s ballyhooed skills as a team architect are going to come under serious scrutiny next year.
And, this unholy mess can’t ALL be blamed on ownership or finances either — remember, PITTSBURGH, CINCINNATI and BALTIMORE are all at or near the top of every column in MLB’s bullpen leaderboard!
Your move, Sandy.
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A couple of quick hits:
Another mind-boggling metric from ESPN’s Mets blog:
“It was, by our checking, the first time in Mets history that they had a lead of at least five runs in the ninth, had it cut to one run, and got the final out with the tying run on third and go-ahead run on base.”
Don’t know what that says about this franchise, exactly, but it made me laugh. I suppose making “history” last night was preferable to those two baserunners coming around after a wayward Rauch slider.
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Finally, on July 29, I wrote a piece advocating signing David Wright to a long-term deal in which I highlighted that he was one home run away from 200, with only Gary Carter and Darryl Strawberry standing between him and the Mets all-time HR record. Calendar says “August 13.” Wright? Stuck on 199. You’re welcome, David.
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OK, enough stats — the comment containing the best prescription (be creative!) for curing the 2012 Mets bullpen ills and setting this team up for return to contention in 2013 will win the author’s choice of autographed Doug Sisk, Armando Benitez, Aaron Heilman or Bobby Parnell bobbleheads. The deadline for submissions is Midnight, Friday Aug 24 (that’ll leave time for your imaginary waiver-wire deals). Step up and win a prize!!
The bar is open …
Let’s Go Mets!
The MetCave 3.0 
I spent a little time Sunday checking out team stats, even defensive stats, more deeply than I usually might.
I won’t bore you with all I found (but I will bore you with everything else), but there were some surprises along the way, good and bad.
But to sum it all up: This bullpen is as horrendous as we think it is and is the biggest culprit in what is, at least for the moment, a losing record. There was some good and bad in the offensive numbers, the defensive numbers and the starting pitching. But the bullpen numbers were indefensible.
Prediction for the Cincinnati series: The Whitestone Whacker hits his first home run of the year.
Slow night in the salt mines for a change.
Happy prediction, Franchie. Lonnnng night down here, visiting the family compound during a sweltering sauna-wave .. but, hark, my latenight check-in yields statistical support (somewhat vague, but certainly not boring) for my deep sense of disquietude with our penpals.
Now that you’ve dropped the teaser from the salt mines, I’m dying to see the movie when you have time to release it. I’m sure you’ll at least let us see the trailer, if not the whole movie, in time for the Aug 24 bobblehead drawing. 😉
The solution for the Met bullpen was advocated by John McKay of the Tampa Bay Bucs when he was asked how he felt about his team’s execution during a losing effort. Coach McKay answered “I’m all for it!”
Pass, a month ago I would have thought your suggestion was absurd and extremist. Now? I think all options should be on the table.
Seriously, McKay’s quote has to be among the top 3 all-time sports quotes of all time.
Another favorite is Mike Schmidt, who had an up-and-down relationship with the Philly fans and media, saying that Philadelphia was the only town where you had the thrill of victory and the agony of reading about it the next day.
Mets traded for Boston catcher Kelly Shoppach today.
32 years old.
Hitting .250 with 5 HRs and 17 RBIs in 140 ABs.
Career .227 hitter with career high (by far) of 21 HRs in 2008.
Trade was a waiver deal. Player to be named later.
Interesting oddity about our new catcher that I read on the Mets’ website: In 2009 he played in only 89 games yet led the AL with 18 HBP.
This trade is nothing to get excited about, obviously, and yet, well, I am exited. A little.
I wanted to see some activity. I know this isn’t much, but it’s a start.
It’s an acknowledgement that our catching for most of the year (the Thole/Biggus tandem) has been unacceptable.
And the optimist in me will infer that it might also mean Alderson realizes catching is a serioius need and has been looking, even for the smallest of upgrades.
I would think Thole is still going to be the No. 1 guy the rest of the way, but who knows? If Shoppach can hit knock in some runs, he might earn some more ABs.
New thread! 😉